PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZ#16 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga#21 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
70%63%
The MongolZ · 6 mapsedge The MongolZ +7%Nemiga · 26 maps
MirageThe MongolZ pick
57%65%
The MongolZ · 10 mapsedge Nemiga +8%Nemiga · 19 maps
Dust2Nemiga ban
63%58%
The MongolZ · 4 mapsedge The MongolZ +5%Nemiga · 20 maps
NukeThe MongolZ ban
44%67%
The MongolZ · 5 mapsedge Nemiga +23%Nemiga · 17 maps
CacheNemiga pick
29%65%
The MongolZ · 3 mapsedge Nemiga +36%Nemiga · 16 maps
AnubisThe MongolZ ban
50%67%
The MongolZ · 0 mapsedge Nemiga +17%Nemiga · 17 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
47%60%
The MongolZ · 11 mapsedge Nemiga +13%Nemiga · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe MongolZ remove Anubis
2. BanNemiga remove Inferno
3. PickThe MongolZ take Mirage
4. PickNemiga take Cache
5. BanNemiga remove Dust2
6. BanThe MongolZ remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (70% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct5:13
The MongolZ 16%Nemiga 84%
The model gave 84% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Dust2prediction missed15:19
The MongolZ 57%Nemiga 43%
The model gave 57% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 56%
Series resultNemiga 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2