EPIC49 · BO3
result vs predictionTPThe Pigswin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
229AvgAgeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cache29AvgAge ban
60%50%
The Pigs · 1 mapedge The Pigs +10%29AvgAge · 0 maps
InfernoThe Pigs ban
40%50%
The Pigs · 1 mapedge 29AvgAge +10%29AvgAge · 0 maps
NukeThe Pigs pick
40%50%
The Pigs · 1 mapedge 29AvgAge +10%29AvgAge · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Pigs remove Inferno
2. Ban29AvgAge remove Cache
3. PickThe Pigs take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
The Pigs 47%29AvgAge 53%
The model gave 53% on 29AvgAge — the map was taken by The Pigs.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
The Pigs 63%29AvgAge 37%
The model gave 63% on The Pigs — the map was taken by 29AvgAge.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
The Pigs 50%29AvgAge 50%
The model gave 50% on The Pigs — the map was taken by The Pigs.
Model check result
Model favorite29AvgAge · 50%
Series resultThe Pigs 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3