ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:0
XDM#222 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageTHE UNIT pick
50%30%
THE UNIT · 6 mapsedge THE UNIT +20%XDM · 6 maps
Dust2XDM ban
38%38%
THE UNIT · 4 mapsnearly even +0%XDM · 4 maps
AncientTHE UNIT ban
43%50%
THE UNIT · 3 mapsedge XDM +7%XDM · 4 maps
InfernoTHE UNIT ban
50%60%
THE UNIT · 0 mapsedge XDM +10%XDM · 6 maps
NukeXDM pick
50%57%
THE UNIT · 0 mapsedge XDM +7%XDM · 3 maps
CacheXDM ban
50%33%
THE UNIT · 0 mapsedge THE UNIT +17%XDM · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTHE UNIT remove Inferno
2. BanXDM remove Cache
3. PickTHE UNIT take Mirage
4. PickXDM take Nuke
5. BanXDM remove Dust2
6. BanTHE UNIT remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
THE UNIT 50%XDM 50%
The model gave 50% on THE UNIT — the map was taken by THE UNIT.
Model check result
Model favoriteXDM · 61%
Series resultTHE UNIT 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1