?
arrow_backBack to match
IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FlyQuest#67 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
75%60%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 8 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +15%FlyQuest · 1 map
Dust2FlyQuest pick
45%67%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 7 mapsedge FlyQuest +22%FlyQuest · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%33%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 6 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +27%FlyQuest · 2 maps
NukeFlyQuest ban
56%60%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 mapsnearly even -4%FlyQuest · 1 map
AncientTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%43%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 2 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +7%FlyQuest · 3 maps
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%33%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +17%FlyQuest · 2 maps
OverpassFlyQuest ban
40%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 mapedge FlyQuest +10%FlyQuest · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
2. BanFlyQuest remove Overpass
3. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Anubis
4. PickFlyQuest take Dust2
5. BanFlyQuest remove Nuke
6. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (60% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 64%FlyQuest 36%
The model gave 64% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Infernoprediction missed3:13
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 77%FlyQuest 23%
The model gave 77% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 54%
Series resultFlyQuest 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2