DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2THUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
46%47%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 9 mapsnearly even -1%Ground Zero · 11 maps
NukeGround Zero pick
55%63%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 7 mapsedge Ground Zero +8%Ground Zero · 12 maps
AnubisTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
73%36%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 11 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +37%Ground Zero · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
58%44%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 8 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +14%Ground Zero · 5 maps
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Ground Zero · 10 maps
AncientGround Zero ban
50%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Ground Zero · 0 maps
OverpassGround Zero ban
40%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 mapedge Ground Zero +10%Ground Zero · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
2. BanGround Zero remove Ancient
3. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Anubis
4. PickGround Zero take Nuke
5. BanGround Zero remove Overpass
6. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (58% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 46%Ground Zero 54%
The model gave 54% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 84%Ground Zero 16%
The model gave 84% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Nukeprediction correct14:16
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 42%Ground Zero 58%
The model gave 58% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 83%
Series resultGround Zero 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3