NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC#147 in the world · win 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Phantom#88 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPhantom ban
67%38%
TNC · 5 mapsedge TNC +29%Phantom · 4 maps
MirageTNC ban
50%57%
TNC · 4 mapsedge Phantom +7%Phantom · 3 maps
Dust2Phantom pick
40%75%
TNC · 1 mapedge Phantom +35%Phantom · 4 maps
NukeTNC pick
57%67%
TNC · 3 mapsedge Phantom +10%Phantom · 2 maps
AnubisPhantom ban
57%50%
TNC · 3 mapsedge TNC +7%Phantom · 0 maps
OverpassTNC ban
40%50%
TNC · 1 mapedge Phantom +10%Phantom · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTNC remove Overpass
2. BanPhantom remove Ancient
3. PickTNC take Nuke
4. PickPhantom take Dust2
5. BanPhantom remove Anubis
6. BanTNC remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
TNC 40%Phantom 60%
The model gave 60% on Phantom — the map was taken by TNC.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
TNC 79%Phantom 21%
The model gave 79% on TNC — the map was taken by Phantom.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
TNC 40%Phantom 60%
The model gave 60% on Phantom — the map was taken by TNC.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 61%
Series resultTNC 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3