BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tricked#44 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AM#57 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAM pick
40%60%
Tricked · 1 mapedge AM +20%AM · 1 map
MirageTricked ban
40%60%
Tricked · 1 mapedge AM +20%AM · 1 map
NukeAM ban
40%60%
Tricked · 1 mapedge AM +20%AM · 1 map
AncientTricked ban
50%60%
Tricked · 0 mapsedge AM +10%AM · 1 map
DefaultTricked pick
50%60%
Tricked · 0 mapsedge AM +10%AM · 1 map
OverpassAM ban
40%50%
Tricked · 1 mapedge AM +10%AM · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTricked remove Ancient
2. BanAM remove Overpass
3. PickTricked take Default
4. PickAM take Inferno
5. BanAM remove Nuke
6. BanTricked remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
Tricked 28%AM 72%
The model gave 72% on AM — the map was taken by Tricked.
Overpassprediction correct3:13
Tricked 43%AM 57%
The model gave 57% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
Tricked 31%AM 69%
The model gave 69% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Model check result
Model favoriteTricked · 61%
Series resultAM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3