BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tricked#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AM#57 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeAM ban
67%58%
Tricked · 5 mapsedge Tricked +9%AM · 8 maps
InfernoTricked pick
50%60%
Tricked · 6 mapsedge AM +10%AM · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%70%
Tricked · 6 mapsedge AM +20%AM · 6 maps
OverpassAM pick
50%70%
Tricked · 4 mapsedge AM +20%AM · 6 maps
AncientAM ban
33%36%
Tricked · 2 mapsnearly even -3%AM · 7 maps
Dust2Tricked ban
50%25%
Tricked · 0 mapsedge Tricked +25%AM · 8 maps
DefaultTricked ban
50%60%
Tricked · 0 mapsedge AM +10%AM · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTricked remove Dust2
2. BanAM remove Ancient
3. PickTricked take Inferno
4. PickAM take Overpass
5. BanAM remove Nuke
6. BanTricked remove Default
DeciderMirage (50% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed16:14
Tricked 28%AM 72%
The model gave 72% on AM — the map was taken by Tricked.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Tricked 62%AM 38%
The model gave 62% on Tricked — the map was taken by Tricked.
Model check result
Model favoriteAM · 50%
Series resultTricked 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2