Kibertochka Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tricksters#199 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DONSTU#221 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDONSTU pick
50%48%
Tricksters · 0 mapsnearly even +2%DONSTU · 17 maps
Dust2DONSTU ban
60%39%
Tricksters · 1 mapedge Tricksters +21%DONSTU · 14 maps
CacheTricksters pick
67%43%
Tricksters · 2 mapsedge Tricksters +24%DONSTU · 10 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%38%
Tricksters · 1 mapnearly even +2%DONSTU · 9 maps
NukeTricksters ban
50%25%
Tricksters · 0 mapsedge Tricksters +25%DONSTU · 8 maps
InfernoTricksters ban
50%50%
Tricksters · 0 mapsnearly even +0%DONSTU · 6 maps
MirageDONSTU ban
43%40%
Tricksters · 3 mapsnearly even +3%DONSTU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTricksters remove Nuke
2. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
3. PickTricksters take Cache
4. PickDONSTU take Anubis
5. BanDONSTU remove Dust2
6. BanTricksters remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (40% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Tricksters 73%DONSTU 27%
The model gave 73% on Tricksters — the map was taken by Tricksters.
Anubisprediction correct6:13
Tricksters 49%DONSTU 51%
The model gave 51% on DONSTU — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Cacheprediction missed10:13
Tricksters 73%DONSTU 27%
The model gave 73% on Tricksters — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 51%
Series resultDONSTU 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3