Gamers Club Masters VII · BO3
result vs prediction
Turma do Pagode#92 in the world · win 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ALKA#153 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
67%38%
Turma do Pagode · 26 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +29%ALKA · 20 maps
Dust2ALKA pick
48%62%
Turma do Pagode · 19 mapsedge ALKA +14%ALKA · 25 maps
Nukepossible decider
40%50%
Turma do Pagode · 6 mapsedge ALKA +10%ALKA · 10 maps
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
56%57%
Turma do Pagode · 5 mapsnearly even -1%ALKA · 10 maps
InfernoALKA ban
56%54%
Turma do Pagode · 5 mapsnearly even +2%ALKA · 9 maps
AnubisALKA ban
40%60%
Turma do Pagode · 11 mapsedge ALKA +20%ALKA · 1 map
CacheTurma do Pagode ban
57%50%
Turma do Pagode · 3 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +7%ALKA · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
2. BanALKA remove Anubis
3. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
4. PickALKA take Dust2
5. BanALKA remove Inferno
6. BanTurma do Pagode remove Cache
DeciderNuke (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
Turma do Pagode 54%ALKA 46%
The model gave 54% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
Turma do Pagode 33%ALKA 67%
The model gave 67% on ALKA — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Model check result
Model favoriteTurma do Pagode · 80%
Series resultTurma do Pagode 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2