ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
TYLOO#33 in the world · win 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Chinggis Warriors#77 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientChinggis Warriors pick
43%60%
TYLOO · 3 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +17%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
NukeTYLOO ban
50%50%
TYLOO · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
InfernoChinggis Warriors ban
60%50%
TYLOO · 1 mapedge TYLOO +10%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
MirageTYLOO pick
71%50%
TYLOO · 3 mapsedge TYLOO +21%Chinggis Warriors · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
TYLOO · 1 mapnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
OverpassChinggis Warriors ban
60%40%
TYLOO · 1 mapedge TYLOO +20%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
Dust2TYLOO ban
50%40%
TYLOO · 0 mapsedge TYLOO +10%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Overpass
3. PickTYLOO take Mirage
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Ancient
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Inferno
6. BanTYLOO remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
TYLOO 31%Chinggis Warriors 69%
The model gave 69% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
TYLOO 63%Chinggis Warriors 37%
The model gave 63% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
TYLOO 71%Chinggis Warriors 29%
The model gave 71% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Model check result
Model favoriteTYLOO · 75%
Series resultTYLOO 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3