ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
TYLOO#33 in the world · win 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kaleido#154 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTYLOO ban
31%57%
TYLOO · 9 mapsedge Kaleido +26%Kaleido · 3 maps
InfernoTYLOO pick
60%38%
TYLOO · 6 mapsedge TYLOO +22%Kaleido · 4 maps
MirageKaleido pick
70%75%
TYLOO · 6 mapsedge Kaleido +5%Kaleido · 4 maps
OverpassKaleido ban
60%60%
TYLOO · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Kaleido · 1 map
Dust2TYLOO ban
50%33%
TYLOO · 0 mapsedge TYLOO +17%Kaleido · 5 maps
NukeKaleido ban
63%50%
TYLOO · 4 mapsedge TYLOO +13%Kaleido · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%40%
TYLOO · 1 mapedge TYLOO +20%Kaleido · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
2. BanKaleido remove Nuke
3. PickTYLOO take Inferno
4. PickKaleido take Mirage
5. BanKaleido remove Overpass
6. BanTYLOO remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:1
TYLOO 41%Kaleido 59%
The model gave 59% on Kaleido — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
TYLOO 74%Kaleido 26%
The model gave 74% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Model check result
Model favoriteTYLOO · 78%
Series resultTYLOO 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2