IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
TYLOO#33 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sharks#51 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTYLOO ban
36%56%
TYLOO · 10 mapsedge Sharks +20%Sharks · 5 maps
NukeSharks pick
60%67%
TYLOO · 6 mapsedge Sharks +7%Sharks · 8 maps
MirageSharks ban
69%29%
TYLOO · 9 mapsedge TYLOO +40%Sharks · 3 maps
InfernoTYLOO pick
69%67%
TYLOO · 9 mapsnearly even +2%Sharks · 2 maps
OverpassSharks ban
60%29%
TYLOO · 6 mapsedge TYLOO +31%Sharks · 3 maps
AnubisTYLOO ban
60%60%
TYLOO · 1 mapnearly even +0%Sharks · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
TYLOO · 1 mapedge TYLOO +10%Sharks · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTYLOO remove Ancient
2. BanSharks remove Overpass
3. PickTYLOO take Inferno
4. PickSharks take Nuke
5. BanSharks remove Mirage
6. BanTYLOO remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
TYLOO 40%Sharks 60%
The model gave 60% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
TYLOO 56%Sharks 44%
The model gave 56% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
TYLOO 50%Sharks 50%
The model gave 50% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Model check result
Model favoriteTYLOO · 54%
Series resultTYLOO 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3