ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
TYLOO#33 in the world · win 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Huns#152 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultTYLOO ban
60%71%
TYLOO · 1 mapedge The Huns +11%The Huns · 3 maps
NukeThe Huns ban
50%40%
TYLOO · 2 mapsedge TYLOO +10%The Huns · 1 map
AncientThe Huns pick
33%50%
TYLOO · 2 mapsedge The Huns +17%The Huns · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%50%
TYLOO · 2 mapsedge TYLOO +17%The Huns · 0 maps
Dust2TYLOO ban
50%40%
TYLOO · 0 mapsedge TYLOO +10%The Huns · 1 map
InfernoThe Huns ban
60%50%
TYLOO · 1 mapedge TYLOO +10%The Huns · 0 maps
OverpassTYLOO pick
60%50%
TYLOO · 1 mapedge TYLOO +10%The Huns · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
2. BanThe Huns remove Inferno
3. PickTYLOO take Overpass
4. PickThe Huns take Ancient
5. BanThe Huns remove Nuke
6. BanTYLOO remove Default
DeciderMirage (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
TYLOO 31%The Huns 69%
The model gave 69% on The Huns — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
TYLOO 69%The Huns 31%
The model gave 69% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Model check result
Model favoriteTYLOO · 80%
Series resultTYLOO 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2