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XP Game Fest 2026 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
UNiTY#102 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientUNiTY ban
38%70%
UNiTY · 9 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +32%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS pick
36%73%
UNiTY · 7 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +37%BASEMENT BOYS · 7 maps
MirageBASEMENT BOYS ban
55%57%
UNiTY · 7 mapsnearly even -2%BASEMENT BOYS · 3 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
50%50%
UNiTY · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
Anubispossible decider
43%50%
UNiTY · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 2 maps
InfernoUNiTY pick
67%43%
UNiTY · 2 mapsedge UNiTY +24%BASEMENT BOYS · 3 maps
DefaultBASEMENT BOYS ban
60%50%
UNiTY · 1 mapedge UNiTY +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Default
3. PickUNiTY take Inferno
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Dust2
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Mirage
6. BanUNiTY remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
UNiTY 50%BASEMENT BOYS 50%
The model gave 50% on UNiTY — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Dust2prediction missed13:3
UNiTY 16%BASEMENT BOYS 84%
The model gave 84% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Anubisprediction correct20:22
UNiTY 43%BASEMENT BOYS 57%
The model gave 57% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 65%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3