FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
UNiTY#102 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NT#88 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2UNiTY ban
53%64%
UNiTY · 15 mapsedge NT +11%NT · 7 maps
MirageNT pick
53%60%
UNiTY · 15 mapsedge NT +7%NT · 6 maps
AncientUNiTY pick
67%40%
UNiTY · 17 mapsedge UNiTY +27%NT · 1 map
InfernoNT ban
60%60%
UNiTY · 16 mapsnearly even +0%NT · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
50%50%
UNiTY · 10 mapsnearly even +0%NT · 4 maps
AnubisNT ban
62%25%
UNiTY · 9 mapsedge UNiTY +37%NT · 4 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
29%43%
UNiTY · 3 mapsedge NT +14%NT · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
2. BanNT remove Anubis
3. PickUNiTY take Ancient
4. PickNT take Mirage
5. BanNT remove Inferno
6. BanUNiTY remove Dust2
DeciderCache (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
UNiTY 40%NT 60%
The model gave 60% on NT — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
UNiTY 77%NT 23%
The model gave 77% on UNiTY — the map was taken by NT.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
UNiTY 50%NT 50%
The model gave 50% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteUNiTY · 54%
Series resultUNiTY 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3