WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#74 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Eex-CYBERSHOKE#123 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisUPGRADE pick
54%50%
UPGRADE · 20 mapsnearly even +4%ex-CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
55%60%
UPGRADE · 16 mapsedge ex-CYBERSHOKE +5%ex-CYBERSHOKE · 1 map
Nukeex-CYBERSHOKE pick
38%60%
UPGRADE · 9 mapsedge ex-CYBERSHOKE +22%ex-CYBERSHOKE · 1 map
Ancientex-CYBERSHOKE ban
67%50%
UPGRADE · 8 mapsedge UPGRADE +17%ex-CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
33%50%
UPGRADE · 5 mapsedge ex-CYBERSHOKE +17%ex-CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
MirageUPGRADE ban
38%50%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge ex-CYBERSHOKE +12%ex-CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
Infernoex-CYBERSHOKE ban
57%50%
UPGRADE · 3 mapsedge UPGRADE +7%ex-CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
2. Banex-CYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
3. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
4. Pickex-CYBERSHOKE take Nuke
5. Banex-CYBERSHOKE remove Ancient
6. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (55% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
UPGRADE 42%ex-CYBERSHOKE 58%
The model gave 58% on ex-CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Ancientprediction missed14:16
UPGRADE 69%ex-CYBERSHOKE 31%
The model gave 69% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by ex-CYBERSHOKE.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
UPGRADE 54%ex-CYBERSHOKE 46%
The model gave 54% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by ex-CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUPGRADE · 65%
Series resultex-CYBERSHOKE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3