NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#64 in the world · win 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
38%56%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge Just Players +18%Just Players · 37 maps
Dust2Just Players ban
42%40%
UPGRADE · 8 mapsnearly even +2%Just Players · 26 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%61%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsnearly even +2%Just Players · 27 maps
NukeJust Players ban
44%35%
UPGRADE · 5 mapsedge UPGRADE +9%Just Players · 19 maps
AnubisUPGRADE pick
56%54%
UPGRADE · 12 mapsnearly even +2%Just Players · 9 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
38%31%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge UPGRADE +7%Just Players · 9 maps
DefaultUPGRADE ban
60%67%
UPGRADE · 1 mapedge Just Players +7%Just Players · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
2. BanJust Players remove Nuke
3. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
4. PickJust Players take Mirage
5. BanJust Players remove Dust2
6. BanUPGRADE remove Default
DeciderAncient (63% / 61%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
UPGRADE 48%Just Players 52%
The model gave 52% on Just Players — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Nukeprediction missed13:16
UPGRADE 63%Just Players 37%
The model gave 63% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by Just Players.
Anubisprediction correct13:4
UPGRADE 52%Just Players 48%
The model gave 52% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUPGRADE · 57%
Series resultUPGRADE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3