CCT 2026 Europe Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ursa#88 in the world · win 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Ursa pick
61%63%
Ursa · 14 mapsnearly even -2%ex-Zero Tenacity · 15 maps
Nukeex-Zero Tenacity pick
33%53%
Ursa · 11 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +20%ex-Zero Tenacity · 13 maps
InfernoUrsa ban
36%42%
Ursa · 7 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +6%ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
55%36%
Ursa · 7 mapsedge Ursa +19%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%36%
Ursa · 2 mapsedge Ursa +14%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
OverpassUrsa ban
33%29%
Ursa · 5 mapsnearly even +4%ex-Zero Tenacity · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%67%
Ursa · 2 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +17%ex-Zero Tenacity · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUrsa remove Overpass
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
3. PickUrsa take Dust2
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Nuke
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
6. BanUrsa remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Ursa 70%ex-Zero Tenacity 30%
The model gave 70% on Ursa — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
Ursa 28%ex-Zero Tenacity 72%
The model gave 72% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by Ursa.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Ursa 48%ex-Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by Ursa.
Model check result
Model favoriteUrsa · 56%
Series resultUrsa 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3