CCT 2026 Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ursa#88 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HEROIC Academy#100 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Ursa pick
52%20%
Ursa · 19 mapsedge Ursa +32%HEROIC Academy · 6 maps
MirageHEROIC Academy pick
46%56%
Ursa · 9 mapsedge HEROIC Academy +10%HEROIC Academy · 12 maps
NukeHEROIC Academy ban
38%29%
Ursa · 12 mapsedge Ursa +9%HEROIC Academy · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
29%38%
Ursa · 10 mapsedge HEROIC Academy +9%HEROIC Academy · 4 maps
AnubisHEROIC Academy ban
50%46%
Ursa · 2 mapsnearly even +4%HEROIC Academy · 9 maps
OverpassUrsa ban
40%43%
Ursa · 6 mapsnearly even -3%HEROIC Academy · 3 maps
AncientUrsa ban
50%45%
Ursa · 0 mapsedge Ursa +5%HEROIC Academy · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUrsa remove Ancient
2. BanHEROIC Academy remove Nuke
3. PickUrsa take Dust2
4. PickHEROIC Academy take Mirage
5. BanHEROIC Academy remove Anubis
6. BanUrsa remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (29% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed2:13
Ursa 83%HEROIC Academy 17%
The model gave 83% on Ursa — the map was taken by HEROIC Academy.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Ursa 37%HEROIC Academy 63%
The model gave 63% on HEROIC Academy — the map was taken by Ursa.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
Ursa 40%HEROIC Academy 60%
The model gave 60% on HEROIC Academy — the map was taken by Ursa.
Model check result
Model favoriteUrsa · 60%
Series resultUrsa 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3