Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
benched gods#162 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
50%50%
Vexar · 16 mapsnearly even +0%benched gods · 10 maps
AnubisVexar ban
33%38%
Vexar · 5 mapsedge benched gods +5%benched gods · 9 maps
Defaultbenched gods pick
45%82%
Vexar · 7 mapsedge benched gods +37%benched gods · 7 maps
Miragebenched gods ban
62%33%
Vexar · 9 mapsedge Vexar +29%benched gods · 5 maps
CacheVexar ban
50%67%
Vexar · 0 mapsedge benched gods +17%benched gods · 11 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%45%
Vexar · 4 mapsedge Vexar +5%benched gods · 7 maps
Nukebenched gods ban
36%50%
Vexar · 10 mapsedge benched gods +14%benched gods · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVexar remove Cache
2. Banbenched gods remove Mirage
3. PickVexar take Ancient
4. Pickbenched gods take Default
5. Banbenched gods remove Nuke
6. BanVexar remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
Vexar 42%benched gods 58%
The model gave 58% on benched gods — the map was taken by benched gods.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Vexar 53%benched gods 47%
The model gave 53% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Mirageprediction missed14:16
Vexar 76%benched gods 24%
The model gave 76% on Vexar — the map was taken by benched gods.
Model check result
Model favoriteVexar · 51%
Series resultbenched gods 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3