ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vexar#123 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
50%33%
Vexar · 16 mapsedge Vexar +17%Dark Moon · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
62%50%
Vexar · 9 mapsedge Vexar +12%Dark Moon · 4 maps
NukeVexar ban
36%50%
Vexar · 10 mapsedge Dark Moon +14%Dark Moon · 0 maps
Dust2Dark Moon pick
50%57%
Vexar · 4 mapsedge Dark Moon +7%Dark Moon · 3 maps
InfernoDark Moon ban
56%40%
Vexar · 5 mapsedge Vexar +16%Dark Moon · 1 map
AnubisVexar ban
33%50%
Vexar · 5 mapsedge Dark Moon +17%Dark Moon · 0 maps
DefaultDark Moon ban
44%50%
Vexar · 5 mapsedge Dark Moon +6%Dark Moon · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVexar remove Nuke
2. BanDark Moon remove Inferno
3. PickVexar take Ancient
4. PickDark Moon take Dust2
5. BanDark Moon remove Default
6. BanVexar remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (62% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
Vexar 44%Dark Moon 56%
The model gave 56% on Dark Moon — the map was taken by Dark Moon.
Model check result
Model favoriteVexar · 65%
Series resultDark Moon 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1