ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientInner Circle Academy pick
50%50%
Vexar · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%50%
Vexar · 1 mapedge Vexar +10%Inner Circle Academy · 6 maps
Dust2Vexar pick
60%44%
Vexar · 1 mapedge Vexar +16%Inner Circle Academy · 5 maps
MirageVexar ban
33%57%
Vexar · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +24%Inner Circle Academy · 3 maps
DefaultInner Circle Academy ban
63%50%
Vexar · 4 mapsedge Vexar +13%Inner Circle Academy · 0 maps
AnubisVexar ban
50%67%
Vexar · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +17%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
50%50%
Vexar · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVexar remove Mirage
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickVexar take Dust2
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Ancient
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Default
6. BanVexar remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed3:13
Vexar 53%Inner Circle Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on Vexar — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Vexar 62%Inner Circle Academy 38%
The model gave 62% on Vexar — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 70%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2