ESEA Season 57 North America Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#198 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Club 333#229 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoVillainous pick
67%43%
Villainous · 2 mapsedge Villainous +24%Club 333 · 3 maps
NukeClub 333 ban
60%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%Club 333 · 4 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
50%50%
Villainous · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Club 333 · 4 maps
MirageVillainous ban
50%50%
Villainous · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Club 333 · 2 maps
AnubisClub 333 ban
60%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%Club 333 · 0 maps
DefaultClub 333 pick
60%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%Club 333 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Dust2
2. BanClub 333 remove Anubis
3. PickVillainous take Inferno
4. PickClub 333 take Default
5. BanClub 333 remove Nuke
6. BanVillainous remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
Villainous 47%Club 333 53%
The model gave 53% on Club 333 — the map was taken by Club 333.
Infernoprediction missed8:13
Villainous 75%Club 333 25%
The model gave 75% on Villainous — the map was taken by Club 333.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 51%
Series resultClub 333 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2