ESEA Season 57 North America Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#198 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DETONATE#196 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
60%43%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +17%DETONATE · 3 maps
AnubisDETONATE pick
50%43%
Villainous · 0 mapsedge Villainous +7%DETONATE · 3 maps
MirageVillainous ban
50%67%
Villainous · 0 mapsedge DETONATE +17%DETONATE · 2 maps
AncientVillainous ban
50%60%
Villainous · 0 mapsedge DETONATE +10%DETONATE · 1 map
DefaultDETONATE ban
60%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%DETONATE · 0 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
50%40%
Villainous · 0 mapsedge Villainous +10%DETONATE · 1 map
InfernoVillainous pick
60%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%DETONATE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Ancient
2. BanDETONATE remove Default
3. PickVillainous take Inferno
4. PickDETONATE take Anubis
5. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
6. BanVillainous remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (60% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:2
Villainous 57%DETONATE 43%
The model gave 57% on Villainous — the map was taken by Villainous.
Anubisprediction correct13:4
Villainous 60%DETONATE 40%
The model gave 60% on Villainous — the map was taken by Villainous.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 50%
Series resultVillainous 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2