ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#198 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DETONATE#196 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
46%33%
Villainous · 9 mapsedge Villainous +13%DETONATE · 11 maps
AnubisVillainous pick
56%33%
Villainous · 12 mapsedge Villainous +23%DETONATE · 5 maps
MirageDETONATE ban
40%30%
Villainous · 11 mapsedge Villainous +10%DETONATE · 6 maps
AncientVillainous ban
25%50%
Villainous · 4 mapsedge DETONATE +25%DETONATE · 4 maps
CacheDETONATE pick
50%60%
Villainous · 2 mapsedge DETONATE +10%DETONATE · 6 maps
NukeVillainous ban
67%50%
Villainous · 2 mapsedge Villainous +17%DETONATE · 4 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
50%50%
Villainous · 4 mapsnearly even +0%DETONATE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Ancient
2. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
3. PickVillainous take Anubis
4. PickDETONATE take Cache
5. BanDETONATE remove Mirage
6. BanVillainous remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (46% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
Villainous 64%DETONATE 36%
The model gave 64% on Villainous — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
Villainous 74%DETONATE 26%
The model gave 74% on Villainous — the map was taken by Villainous.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
Villainous 63%DETONATE 37%
The model gave 63% on Villainous — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 65%
Series resultDETONATE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3