ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#198 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFarmVille ban
40%21%
Villainous · 11 mapsedge Villainous +19%FarmVille · 10 maps
Miragepossible decider
40%60%
Villainous · 11 mapsedge FarmVille +20%FarmVille · 6 maps
Dust2FarmVille pick
50%40%
Villainous · 4 mapsedge Villainous +10%FarmVille · 11 maps
AnubisVillainous pick
65%60%
Villainous · 13 mapsedge Villainous +5%FarmVille · 1 map
AncientVillainous ban
25%63%
Villainous · 4 mapsedge FarmVille +38%FarmVille · 4 maps
CacheVillainous ban
50%50%
Villainous · 2 mapsnearly even +0%FarmVille · 6 maps
NukeFarmVille ban
57%50%
Villainous · 3 mapsedge Villainous +7%FarmVille · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Ancient
2. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
3. PickVillainous take Anubis
4. PickFarmVille take Dust2
5. BanFarmVille remove Inferno
6. BanVillainous remove Cache
DeciderMirage (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Villainous 57%FarmVille 43%
The model gave 57% on Villainous — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Villainous 33%FarmVille 67%
The model gave 67% on FarmVille — the map was taken by Villainous.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
Villainous 71%FarmVille 29%
The model gave 71% on Villainous — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Model check result
Model favoriteFarmVille · 60%
Series resultFarmVille 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3