CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#198 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LAG#91 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLAG ban
40%47%
Villainous · 11 mapsedge LAG +7%LAG · 13 maps
InfernoLAG ban
43%53%
Villainous · 10 mapsedge LAG +10%LAG · 13 maps
AnubisVillainous pick
59%73%
Villainous · 13 mapsedge LAG +14%LAG · 7 maps
Dust2LAG pick
50%65%
Villainous · 4 mapsedge LAG +15%LAG · 13 maps
NukeVillainous ban
57%67%
Villainous · 3 mapsedge LAG +10%LAG · 11 maps
AncientVillainous ban
25%64%
Villainous · 4 mapsedge LAG +39%LAG · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%67%
Villainous · 1 mapedge LAG +7%LAG · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Ancient
2. BanLAG remove Mirage
3. PickVillainous take Anubis
4. PickLAG take Dust2
5. BanLAG remove Inferno
6. BanVillainous remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
Villainous 38%LAG 62%
The model gave 62% on LAG — the map was taken by Villainous.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
Villainous 14%LAG 86%
The model gave 86% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
Villainous 40%LAG 60%
The model gave 60% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 58%
Series resultLAG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3