ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#198 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNew Legends pick
38%60%
Villainous · 9 mapsedge New Legends +22%New Legends · 1 map
AnubisVillainous pick
46%50%
Villainous · 9 mapsnearly even -4%New Legends · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
42%40%
Villainous · 8 mapsnearly even +2%New Legends · 1 map
AncientVillainous ban
25%43%
Villainous · 4 mapsedge New Legends +18%New Legends · 3 maps
Dust2New Legends ban
50%33%
Villainous · 2 mapsedge Villainous +17%New Legends · 2 maps
CacheNew Legends ban
50%50%
Villainous · 2 mapsnearly even +0%New Legends · 0 maps
NukeVillainous ban
60%60%
Villainous · 1 mapnearly even +0%New Legends · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Ancient
2. BanNew Legends remove Cache
3. PickVillainous take Anubis
4. PickNew Legends take Mirage
5. BanNew Legends remove Dust2
6. BanVillainous remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (42% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Villainous 64%New Legends 36%
The model gave 64% on Villainous — the map was taken by Villainous.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
Villainous 55%New Legends 45%
The model gave 55% on Villainous — the map was taken by Villainous.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 61%
Series resultVillainous 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2