CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#198 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
42%68%
Villainous · 8 mapsedge Overtake Sector +26%Overtake Sector · 15 maps
Infernopossible decider
38%53%
Villainous · 9 mapsedge Overtake Sector +15%Overtake Sector · 11 maps
AncientVillainous ban
25%43%
Villainous · 4 mapsedge Overtake Sector +18%Overtake Sector · 10 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
43%46%
Villainous · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
50%50%
Villainous · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
CacheOvertake Sector ban
50%63%
Villainous · 2 mapsedge Overtake Sector +13%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
DefaultVillainous pick
60%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Dust2
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
3. PickVillainous take Default
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Cache
6. BanVillainous remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (38% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Villainous 23%Overtake Sector 77%
The model gave 77% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
Villainous 53%Overtake Sector 47%
The model gave 53% on Villainous — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 72%
Series resultOvertake Sector 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2