PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#209 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Without a Roof#119 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoVillainous pick
46%50%
Villainous · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Without a Roof · 6 maps
MirageVillainous ban
40%67%
Villainous · 6 mapsedge Without a Roof +27%Without a Roof · 5 maps
AncientWithout a Roof pick
25%56%
Villainous · 4 mapsedge Without a Roof +31%Without a Roof · 5 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
58%60%
Villainous · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Without a Roof · 1 map
Dust2Villainous ban
43%43%
Villainous · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%50%
Villainous · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 0 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
50%50%
Villainous · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Dust2
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
3. PickVillainous take Inferno
4. PickWithout a Roof take Ancient
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
6. BanVillainous remove Mirage
DeciderCache (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
Villainous 23%Without a Roof 77%
The model gave 77% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
Villainous 49%Without a Roof 51%
The model gave 51% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 63%
Series resultWithout a Roof 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2