ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.pro#65 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atreides#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Atreides ban
52%33%
Virtus.pro · 19 mapsedge Virtus.pro +19%Atreides · 8 maps
MirageAtreides pick
59%67%
Virtus.pro · 13 mapsedge Atreides +8%Atreides · 14 maps
NukeVirtus.pro pick
64%36%
Virtus.pro · 10 mapsedge Virtus.pro +28%Atreides · 7 maps
AnubisAtreides ban
55%45%
Virtus.pro · 7 mapsedge Virtus.pro +10%Atreides · 7 maps
AncientVirtus.pro ban
57%36%
Virtus.pro · 3 mapsedge Virtus.pro +21%Atreides · 10 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%31%
Virtus.pro · 1 mapedge Virtus.pro +9%Atreides · 12 maps
InfernoVirtus.pro ban
50%53%
Virtus.pro · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Atreides · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVirtus.pro remove Inferno
2. BanAtreides remove Dust2
3. PickVirtus.pro take Nuke
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Anubis
6. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 31%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Virtus.pro 68%Atreides 32%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Virtus.pro 71%Atreides 29%
The model gave 71% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 74%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2