ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.pro#65 in the world · win 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fire Flux#128 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Fire Flux pick
48%56%
Virtus.pro · 17 mapsedge Fire Flux +8%Fire Flux · 12 maps
MirageVirtus.pro pick
56%36%
Virtus.pro · 12 mapsedge Virtus.pro +20%Fire Flux · 7 maps
AnubisVirtus.pro ban
56%62%
Virtus.pro · 5 mapsedge Fire Flux +6%Fire Flux · 9 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
64%63%
Virtus.pro · 10 mapsnearly even +1%Fire Flux · 4 maps
Cachepossible decider
63%45%
Virtus.pro · 4 mapsedge Virtus.pro +18%Fire Flux · 7 maps
OverpassFire Flux ban
58%50%
Virtus.pro · 8 mapsedge Virtus.pro +8%Fire Flux · 0 maps
AncientVirtus.pro ban
57%50%
Virtus.pro · 3 mapsedge Virtus.pro +7%Fire Flux · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
2. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
3. PickVirtus.pro take Mirage
4. PickFire Flux take Dust2
5. BanFire Flux remove Overpass
6. BanVirtus.pro remove Anubis
DeciderCache (63% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct6:13
Virtus.pro 41%Fire Flux 59%
The model gave 59% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Virtus.pro 72%Fire Flux 28%
The model gave 72% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Virtus.pro 41%Fire Flux 59%
The model gave 59% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 72%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3