WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · win 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TokyoSavageloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Virtus.pro ban
44%50%
Virtus.pro · 12 mapsedge TokyoSavage +6%TokyoSavage · 0 maps
MirageTokyoSavage ban
56%50%
Virtus.pro · 12 mapsedge Virtus.pro +6%TokyoSavage · 0 maps
OverpassVirtus.pro pick
64%50%
Virtus.pro · 10 mapsedge Virtus.pro +14%TokyoSavage · 0 maps
AncientVirtus.pro ban
60%50%
Virtus.pro · 6 mapsedge Virtus.pro +10%TokyoSavage · 0 maps
NukeTokyoSavage ban
78%50%
Virtus.pro · 5 mapsedge Virtus.pro +28%TokyoSavage · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
Virtus.pro · 4 mapsnearly even +0%TokyoSavage · 0 maps
DefaultTokyoSavage pick
40%50%
Virtus.pro · 1 mapedge TokyoSavage +10%TokyoSavage · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
2. BanTokyoSavage remove Nuke
3. PickVirtus.pro take Overpass
4. PickTokyoSavage take Default
5. BanTokyoSavage remove Mirage
6. BanVirtus.pro remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:1
Virtus.pro 41%TokyoSavage 59%
The model gave 59% on TokyoSavage — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Nukeprediction correct13:0
Virtus.pro 80%TokyoSavage 20%
The model gave 80% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 84%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2