ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitalem Aerem#180 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Banzai ban
71%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 3 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +21%Banzai · 0 maps
InfernoVitalem Aerem pick
43%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 3 mapsedge Banzai +7%Banzai · 0 maps
AncientBanzai pick
40%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 1 mapedge Banzai +10%Banzai · 0 maps
NukeVitalem Aerem ban
40%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 1 mapedge Banzai +10%Banzai · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitalem Aerem remove Nuke
2. BanBanzai remove Dust2
3. PickVitalem Aerem take Inferno
4. PickBanzai take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
Vitalem Aerem 53%Banzai 47%
The model gave 53% on Vitalem Aerem — the map was taken by Vitalem Aerem.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
Vitalem Aerem 37%Banzai 63%
The model gave 63% on Banzai — the map was taken by Vitalem Aerem.
Model check result
Model favoriteBanzai · 50%
Series resultVitalem Aerem 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2