ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitalem Aerem#180 in the world · win 2:1series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rare Atom#105 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitalem Aerem pick
46%62%
Vitalem Aerem · 9 mapsedge Rare Atom +16%Rare Atom · 22 maps
Ancientpossible decider
46%56%
Vitalem Aerem · 9 mapsedge Rare Atom +10%Rare Atom · 12 maps
InfernoRare Atom pick
44%60%
Vitalem Aerem · 5 mapsedge Rare Atom +16%Rare Atom · 11 maps
CacheVitalem Aerem ban
50%71%
Vitalem Aerem · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +21%Rare Atom · 13 maps
MirageRare Atom ban
60%58%
Vitalem Aerem · 1 mapnearly even +2%Rare Atom · 8 maps
AnubisVitalem Aerem ban
50%63%
Vitalem Aerem · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +13%Rare Atom · 4 maps
NukeRare Atom ban
44%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 5 mapsedge Rare Atom +6%Rare Atom · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitalem Aerem remove Cache
2. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
3. PickVitalem Aerem take Dust2
4. PickRare Atom take Inferno
5. BanRare Atom remove Mirage
6. BanVitalem Aerem remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (46% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct18:22
Vitalem Aerem 32%Rare Atom 68%
The model gave 68% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Vitalem Aerem 38%Rare Atom 62%
The model gave 62% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Vitalem Aerem.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Vitalem Aerem 40%Rare Atom 60%
The model gave 60% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Vitalem Aerem.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 75%
Series resultVitalem Aerem 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3