ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitality#2 in the world · win 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Falcons#5 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitality pick
73%69%
Vitality · 11 mapsnearly even +4%Falcons · 9 maps
MirageVitality ban
58%63%
Vitality · 8 mapsedge Falcons +5%Falcons · 4 maps
NukeFalcons pick
50%57%
Vitality · 8 mapsedge Falcons +7%Falcons · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
Vitality · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Falcons · 2 maps
InfernoFalcons ban
50%63%
Vitality · 4 mapsedge Falcons +13%Falcons · 4 maps
CacheFalcons ban
70%50%
Vitality · 6 mapsedge Vitality +20%Falcons · 0 maps
AncientVitality ban
50%33%
Vitality · 0 mapsedge Vitality +17%Falcons · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitality remove Ancient
2. BanFalcons remove Cache
3. PickVitality take Dust2
4. PickFalcons take Nuke
5. BanFalcons remove Inferno
6. BanVitality remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
Vitality 47%Falcons 53%
The model gave 53% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Vitality 58%Falcons 42%
The model gave 58% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Vitality 46%Falcons 54%
The model gave 54% on Falcons — the map was taken by Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 57%
Series resultVitality 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3