StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitality#2 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FURIA#4 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitality pick
64%54%
Vitality · 10 mapsedge Vitality +10%FURIA · 9 maps
NukeFURIA pick
60%64%
Vitality · 6 mapsnearly even -4%FURIA · 7 maps
MirageVitality ban
44%55%
Vitality · 5 mapsedge FURIA +11%FURIA · 7 maps
CacheFURIA ban
57%45%
Vitality · 3 mapsedge Vitality +12%FURIA · 7 maps
AncientVitality ban
50%50%
Vitality · 0 mapsnearly even +0%FURIA · 8 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
33%29%
Vitality · 5 mapsnearly even +4%FURIA · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%50%
Vitality · 3 mapsedge Vitality +7%FURIA · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitality remove Ancient
2. BanFURIA remove Anubis
3. PickVitality take Dust2
4. PickFURIA take Nuke
5. BanFURIA remove Cache
6. BanVitality remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Vitality 37%FURIA 63%
The model gave 63% on FURIA — the map was taken by Vitality.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
Vitality 63%FURIA 37%
The model gave 63% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 55%
Series resultVitality 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2