ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO5
result vs prediction
Vitality#2 in the world · win 3:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 3:0
MOUZ#3 in the world · loss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitality pick
76%63%
Vitality · 13 mapsedge Vitality +13%MOUZ · 12 maps
MirageMOUZ pick
64%78%
Vitality · 10 mapsedge MOUZ +14%MOUZ · 14 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%67%
Vitality · 8 mapsedge MOUZ +17%MOUZ · 11 maps
CacheVitality pick
73%50%
Vitality · 7 mapsedge Vitality +23%MOUZ · 6 maps
InfernoMOUZ pick
56%80%
Vitality · 5 mapsedge MOUZ +24%MOUZ · 6 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
43%50%
Vitality · 10 mapsedge MOUZ +7%MOUZ · 0 maps
AncientVitality ban
50%38%
Vitality · 0 mapsedge Vitality +12%MOUZ · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitality remove Ancient
2. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
3. PickVitality take Dust2
4. PickMOUZ take Mirage
5. PickVitality take Cache
6. PickMOUZ take Inferno
DeciderNuke (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
Vitality 75%MOUZ 25%
The model gave 75% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
Vitality 22%MOUZ 78%
The model gave 78% on MOUZ — the map was taken by Vitality.
Dust2prediction correct16:12
Vitality 69%MOUZ 31%
The model gave 69% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 57%
Series resultVitality 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3