ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitality#2 in the world · win 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNatus Vincere pick
55%44%
Vitality · 7 mapsedge Vitality +11%Natus Vincere · 5 maps
Dust2Natus Vincere ban
73%50%
Vitality · 11 mapsedge Vitality +23%Natus Vincere · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%45%
Vitality · 4 mapsedge Vitality +5%Natus Vincere · 7 maps
NukeNatus Vincere ban
55%50%
Vitality · 7 mapsedge Vitality +5%Natus Vincere · 2 maps
AnubisVitality ban
45%60%
Vitality · 7 mapsedge Natus Vincere +15%Natus Vincere · 1 map
CacheVitality pick
70%67%
Vitality · 6 mapsnearly even +3%Natus Vincere · 2 maps
AncientVitality ban
50%29%
Vitality · 0 mapsedge Vitality +21%Natus Vincere · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitality remove Ancient
2. BanNatus Vincere remove Dust2
3. PickVitality take Cache
4. PickNatus Vincere take Mirage
5. BanNatus Vincere remove Nuke
6. BanVitality remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:5
Vitality 33%Natus Vincere 67%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Vitality.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
Vitality 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on Vitality — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
Vitality 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 77%
Series resultVitality 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3