PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitality#2 in the world · win 2:1series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere#11 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Natus Vincere ban
75%44%
Vitality · 16 mapsedge Vitality +31%Natus Vincere · 5 maps
MirageNatus Vincere ban
69%33%
Vitality · 12 mapsedge Vitality +36%Natus Vincere · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%43%
Vitality · 8 mapsedge Vitality +24%Natus Vincere · 10 maps
CacheVitality pick
79%67%
Vitality · 10 mapsedge Vitality +12%Natus Vincere · 5 maps
AnubisNatus Vincere pick
43%63%
Vitality · 10 mapsedge Natus Vincere +20%Natus Vincere · 4 maps
NukeVitality ban
55%60%
Vitality · 7 mapsedge Natus Vincere +5%Natus Vincere · 6 maps
AncientVitality ban
50%38%
Vitality · 0 mapsedge Vitality +12%Natus Vincere · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitality remove Ancient
2. BanNatus Vincere remove Dust2
3. PickVitality take Cache
4. PickNatus Vincere take Anubis
5. BanNatus Vincere remove Mirage
6. BanVitality remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (67% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
Vitality 62%Natus Vincere 38%
The model gave 62% on Vitality — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Vitality 83%Natus Vincere 17%
The model gave 83% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Vitality 79%Natus Vincere 21%
The model gave 79% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 85%
Series resultVitality 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3