ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Voca#67 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Voca pick
70%60%
Voca · 6 mapsedge Voca +10%FarmVille · 1 map
AncientFarmVille ban
60%50%
Voca · 6 mapsedge Voca +10%FarmVille · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
63%60%
Voca · 4 mapsnearly even +3%FarmVille · 1 map
CacheFarmVille pick
38%50%
Voca · 4 mapsedge FarmVille +12%FarmVille · 0 maps
NukeFarmVille ban
57%50%
Voca · 3 mapsedge Voca +7%FarmVille · 0 maps
AnubisVoca ban
40%50%
Voca · 1 mapedge FarmVille +10%FarmVille · 0 maps
InfernoVoca ban
50%40%
Voca · 0 mapsedge Voca +10%FarmVille · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVoca remove Inferno
2. BanFarmVille remove Ancient
3. PickVoca take Dust2
4. PickFarmVille take Cache
5. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
6. BanVoca remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (63% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Voca 50%FarmVille 50%
The model gave 50% on FarmVille — the map was taken by Voca.
Cacheprediction missed13:11
Voca 40%FarmVille 60%
The model gave 60% on FarmVille — the map was taken by Voca.
Model check result
Model favoriteVoca · 68%
Series resultVoca 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2