ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Voca#67 in the world · win 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Marsborne#82 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMarsborne pick
64%75%
Voca · 7 mapsedge Marsborne +11%Marsborne · 8 maps
Dust2Voca pick
80%56%
Voca · 6 mapsedge Voca +24%Marsborne · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
75%63%
Voca · 4 mapsedge Voca +12%Marsborne · 4 maps
CacheMarsborne ban
44%40%
Voca · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Marsborne · 1 map
InfernoVoca ban
50%70%
Voca · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +20%Marsborne · 6 maps
AnubisVoca ban
40%57%
Voca · 1 mapedge Marsborne +17%Marsborne · 3 maps
NukeMarsborne ban
50%50%
Voca · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Marsborne · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVoca remove Inferno
2. BanMarsborne remove Cache
3. PickVoca take Dust2
4. PickMarsborne take Ancient
5. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
6. BanVoca remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (75% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct20:22
Voca 47%Marsborne 53%
The model gave 53% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
Voca 78%Marsborne 22%
The model gave 78% on Voca — the map was taken by Voca.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
Voca 37%Marsborne 63%
The model gave 63% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Voca.
Model check result
Model favoriteVoca · 57%
Series resultVoca 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3