PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Voca#92 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Without a Roof#119 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
69%55%
Voca · 9 mapsedge Voca +14%Without a Roof · 7 maps
Dust2Voca pick
83%50%
Voca · 8 mapsedge Voca +33%Without a Roof · 4 maps
MirageWithout a Roof pick
75%70%
Voca · 4 mapsedge Voca +5%Without a Roof · 6 maps
InfernoVoca ban
50%62%
Voca · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +12%Without a Roof · 9 maps
CacheVoca ban
40%50%
Voca · 6 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%Without a Roof · 0 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
38%50%
Voca · 4 mapsedge Without a Roof +12%Without a Roof · 2 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
57%60%
Voca · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Without a Roof · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVoca remove Inferno
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
3. PickVoca take Dust2
4. PickWithout a Roof take Mirage
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
6. BanVoca remove Cache
DeciderAncient (69% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Voca 53%Without a Roof 47%
The model gave 53% on Voca — the map was taken by Voca.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
Voca 40%Without a Roof 60%
The model gave 60% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Voca.
Model check result
Model favoriteVoca · 67%
Series resultVoca 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2