NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 1:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
67%40%
Walczaki · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +27%Bebop · 1 map
AnubisBebop ban
63%50%
Walczaki · 4 mapsedge Walczaki +13%Bebop · 0 maps
AncientBebop ban
57%50%
Walczaki · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Bebop · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%40%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +27%Bebop · 1 map
DefaultBebop pick
50%50%
Walczaki · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Bebop · 0 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
40%60%
Walczaki · 1 mapedge Bebop +20%Bebop · 1 map
Dust2Walczaki ban
50%60%
Walczaki · 0 mapsedge Bebop +10%Bebop · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
2. BanBebop remove Ancient
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. PickBebop take Default
5. BanBebop remove Anubis
6. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (67% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Walczaki 50%Bebop 50%
The model gave 50% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 59%
Series resultWalczaki 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1