NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
50%42%
Walczaki · 24 mapsedge Walczaki +8%ex-RUSTEC · 8 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
43%56%
Walczaki · 17 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +13%ex-RUSTEC · 14 maps
Anubispossible decider
63%50%
Walczaki · 15 mapsedge Walczaki +13%ex-RUSTEC · 6 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
50%44%
Walczaki · 14 mapsedge Walczaki +6%ex-RUSTEC · 5 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
71%70%
Walczaki · 10 mapsnearly even +1%ex-RUSTEC · 6 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
63%50%
Walczaki · 15 mapsedge Walczaki +13%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC pick
29%50%
Walczaki · 3 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +21%ex-RUSTEC · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Cache
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
6. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
Walczaki 66%ex-RUSTEC 34%
The model gave 66% on Walczaki — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
Walczaki 26%ex-RUSTEC 74%
The model gave 74% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 60%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2