Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
61%56%
Walczaki · 27 mapsedge Walczaki +5%Inner Circle · 5 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
45%60%
Walczaki · 16 mapsedge Inner Circle +15%Inner Circle · 6 maps
AncientInner Circle ban
67%50%
Walczaki · 17 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Inner Circle · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
70%50%
Walczaki · 16 mapsedge Walczaki +20%Inner Circle · 0 maps
MirageInner Circle pick
71%50%
Walczaki · 10 mapsedge Walczaki +21%Inner Circle · 6 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
60%50%
Walczaki · 11 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Inner Circle · 0 maps
DefaultWalczaki ban
60%60%
Walczaki · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
2. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. PickInner Circle take Mirage
5. BanInner Circle remove Ancient
6. BanWalczaki remove Default
DeciderAnubis (70% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
Walczaki 72%Inner Circle 28%
The model gave 72% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Walczaki 33%Inner Circle 67%
The model gave 67% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 51%
Series resultInner Circle 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2