Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nordic Partners#118 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisWalczaki pick
58%56%
Walczaki · 15 mapsnearly even +2%Nordic Partners · 5 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
31%33%
Walczaki · 9 mapsnearly even -2%Nordic Partners · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
54%33%
Walczaki · 9 mapsedge Walczaki +21%Nordic Partners · 2 maps
NukeNordic Partners ban
57%40%
Walczaki · 10 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Nordic Partners · 1 map
AncientNordic Partners ban
55%33%
Walczaki · 7 mapsedge Walczaki +22%Nordic Partners · 2 maps
CacheWalczaki ban
36%40%
Walczaki · 7 mapsnearly even -4%Nordic Partners · 1 map
MirageNordic Partners pick
56%50%
Walczaki · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +6%Nordic Partners · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
2. BanNordic Partners remove Nuke
3. PickWalczaki take Anubis
4. PickNordic Partners take Mirage
5. BanNordic Partners remove Ancient
6. BanWalczaki remove Cache
DeciderInferno (54% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
Walczaki 58%Nordic Partners 42%
The model gave 58% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Nordic Partners.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
Walczaki 49%Nordic Partners 51%
The model gave 51% on Nordic Partners — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Nukeprediction missed2:13
Walczaki 67%Nordic Partners 33%
The model gave 67% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Nordic Partners.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 66%
Series resultNordic Partners 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3