Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Oxuji#173 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
59%64%
Walczaki · 23 mapsedge Oxuji +5%Oxuji · 18 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
47%48%
Walczaki · 13 mapsnearly even -1%Oxuji · 17 maps
AncientWalczaki ban
63%64%
Walczaki · 15 mapsnearly even -1%Oxuji · 10 maps
InfernoOxuji ban
57%33%
Walczaki · 10 mapsedge Walczaki +24%Oxuji · 8 maps
AnubisOxuji ban
75%38%
Walczaki · 12 mapsedge Walczaki +37%Oxuji · 4 maps
Miragepossible decider
75%50%
Walczaki · 8 mapsedge Walczaki +25%Oxuji · 8 maps
DefaultOxuji pick
56%75%
Walczaki · 5 mapsedge Oxuji +19%Oxuji · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
2. BanOxuji remove Anubis
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. PickOxuji take Default
5. BanOxuji remove Inferno
6. BanWalczaki remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (75% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
Walczaki 75%Oxuji 25%
The model gave 75% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
Walczaki 42%Oxuji 58%
The model gave 58% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 62%
Series resultWalczaki 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2