ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#146 in the world · win 1:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoWalczaki ban
60%50%
Walczaki · 1 mapedge Walczaki +10%playersclub · 0 maps
Nukeplayersclub ban
60%50%
Walczaki · 1 mapedge Walczaki +10%playersclub · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Inferno
2. Banplayersclub remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Walczaki 50%playersclub 50%
The model gave 50% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 76%
Series resultWalczaki 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1